Filipinos will troop to elections next year with a limited number of
choices for public officials, a shrinking field of candidates that
political scientists say, could threaten the country's democratic
system in the long run.
There are 40,094 candidates for national and local seats in next
year's midterm elections, the lowest number of candidacies since the
1998 elections, the earliest data available provided by the Commission
on Elections (Comelec).
What's more, these numbers are preliminary and poised to decline
further as Comelec is expected to disqualify candidates it deems as
nuisance such as those deemed incapable of staging a nationwide
campaign.
Fewer candidates in Philippine polls...
Note: Data for 2025 is preliminary.
Source: Commission on
Elections
As the number of candidates dwindled however, seats up for grabs have
consistently increased. For 2025, candidates are competing for 18,280
national and local positions, which on average meant only about two
candidates will be running for a single position— a 50-50 chance of
winning (or losing). The increase in public position is heavily a
result of a rising number of legislators at the Lower House.
...even as there are more government seats up for the taking
In 2001, the earliest midterm elections for which data is available,
three candidates on average are running for each position. That has
gone down to just two this year, our analysis showed.
The Philippines holds elections every three years for local leaders
such as mayors and governors, members of the House of Representatives
and 12 of 24 senators. The country elects a president and vice
president every six years.
While there is no ideal number of candidates, having a few of them
running makes an election less competitive, a critical ingredient in a
democratic exercise, Anthony Lawrence Borja, an associate professor of
political science from De La Salle University said.
In extreme cases, Maria Ela Atienza, a political scientist at
University of the Philippines-Diliman, said having candidates run
unopposed in select positions can go against the democratic essence of
an election. Data requested from the Comelec did not include
information about which candidates run unopposed.
"Simply put, if this trend continues, then elections are rendered into
mere rubber-stamps for an incumbent's legitimacy," Borja said.
More women are running for office
Share of female candidates in Philippine elections
Source: Author's analysis of Comelec data
While having a smaller candidate pool seems bleak, its gender
composition may offer some reprieve. Women represent 21.7% of
candidates for election next year, the largest share since 1998,
Comelec data showed. The increase is helped by the general downtrend
in candidates, although in absolute terms, the number of female
candidates remains elevated at 8,712. In 2022, they were 9,483, the
largest in available data.
Beyond the data, a narrowing election field couldn't be more obvious.
Familiar politicians are gunning for reelection or aiming to return to
office after losing the 2022 polls. If not them, their family members
from parents to siblings are making their debut, either to replace
relatives whose terms are expiring or run for another position, a
report
by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism showed.
On one hand, Atienza said rising campaign costs could be deterring new
potential candidates. Personalities belonging to more established
political parties have the financial advantage to campaign. "Elections
in the Philippines are getting more and more expensive," she said.
Apart from district representatives, partylists are also competing
over a larger number of House seats since by law, they are allocated
20% of the total House. The number of party-lists running next year
however has also declined by over a fifth to 137, data showed.
The opposite trend is happening at the Senate. There are 127
senatorial candidates for 12 seats next year, nearly double the number
from 2022 and the biggest in available Comelec data since 1998. The
appeal of a higher position can be one reason for the increase in
candidacies, Atienza said, who cited "celebrities" who successfully
won a Senate seat in the past elections (in the current Senate, there
are at least four former actors namely Robin Padilla, Jinggoy Estrada,
Ramon Revilla Jr. and Lito Lapid).
Fewer people aspire for a bigger Lower House
The Philippine House of Representatives only had 208 district
representatives in 1998. Next year, it will have 254.
Fewest number of
House candidates and most number of seats
at stake.
The number of congressional seats at the House has been
constantly increasing every election cycle.
Fewest number of
House candidates and most number of seats
at stake.
The number of congressional seats at the House has been
constantly increasing every election cycle.
Fewest number of
House candidates and most number of seats
at stake.
Note: Data for 2025 is preliminary. Data only includes district
representatives.
Source: Comelec
Borja was more nuanced and took note of the recent trend. For
instance, in 2010, the number of senatorial candidates also nearly
doubled from 2007 a surge that "was probably due to the unpopularity
of the Arroyo administration." "When a barely legitimate regime ends,
a vacuum emerges in favor of more prospective candidates seeking to
present an alternative to their predecessor," he said.
Appeal of a higher office?
The number of senatorial aspirants next year soared
2001
36 senatorial candidates
2001
36 senatorial candidates
2001
36 senatorial candidates
Note: 2025 data is preliminary.
Source: Comelec
From 61 in 2010, senatorial candidates dipped to 33 in 2013 before
rising again to 50 in 2016. The number of senatorial aspirants has
constantly increased every election thereafter.
"What we have from 2016 onwards is a mix of dynasts and outsiders,
with the former reflecting old oligarchic defects and the latter
embodying a need to bring more supposedly nontraditional politicians
into the Senate," he explained, citing the Villars and Binays who
currently hold positions at the Senate and local office.
Races for mayors, governors and their vice are also becoming tighter.
The number of gubernatorial candidates, at 230, is down 11% from 2022
and a larger 14.2% from the last midterm polls in 2019, Comelec data
showed. Smaller decreases were recorded for vice governors at 15.6%
and 0.5%, respectively.
There are 3,647 candidates for mayor and 3,344 for vice mayor, data
showed. These candidacies are down 8% and 6.9%, from the 2019 midterm
elections, respectively. They were also the lowest since available
data from 1998.
Consistent with the trend at the House of Representatives, Borja said
fewer candidates at the local level still speaks of the concentration
of power among some political dynasties. While he did not go into
specifics, it is common for political families to have a stronghold in
some cities such as in Metro Manila, including the Villars in Las
Pinas, Cayetanos in Taguig, and Quimbos in Marikina.
It is also much cheaper to launch a local campaign than a national
one, Borja said.
Candidates for mayor, vice mayor hit lowest since at least 1998
Number of candidates for provincial and city leaders in each
election from 1998
Note: 2025 data is preliminary. Tally does not include candidates
for regional governor and vice governor in the autonomous region in
Muslim Mindanao and the subsequent Bangsamoro region.
Source: Comelec
While a dwindling pool of choices for public office is not good,
having more people run for an elected position is just the first step
towards a fix, Borja said. "Should we even encourage more people to
run for office?
"If we are to encourage more people to run for office (and this is
something that liberal and progressive forces are trying to do
locally, especially with the youth), then it is also a matter of
ensuring that they would be better than incumbents in terms of
marketing, political suave, and the capacity to deliver public goods
and services," Borja explained.
"Electoral politics is a matter of quantity and quality," he said.
Note
Added quotes from Atienza. Amended position of Borja to associate
professor of political science, not public administration.
Source
Comelec
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